幸存者偏差 Survivorship Bias

第二次dì'èr cì世界大战shìjiè dàzhàn期间qījiān，盟军méngjūn想xiǎng给gěi轰炸机hōngzhàjī加装jiāzhuāng装甲zhuāngjiǎ，以yǐ减少jiǎnshǎo损失sǔnshī。

During the Second World War, the Allies wanted to add armor to their bombers in order to reduce losses.

统计tǒngjì人员rényuán检查jiǎnchá了le返航fǎnháng的de飞机fēijī，发现fāxiàn机翼jīyì上shàng弹孔dànkǒng密布mìbù，于是yúshì建议jiànyì加固jiāgù机翼jīyì。

The statisticians examined the planes that made it back, found the wings riddled with bullet holes, and so proposed reinforcing the wings.

一位yí wèi名叫míngjiào瓦尔德Wǎ'ěrdé的de统计学家tǒngjìxuéjiā却què提出tíchū了le相反xiāngfǎn的de意见yìjiàn：应该yīnggāi加固jiāgù的de是shì弹孔dànkǒng最少zuì shǎo的de发动机fādòngjī部位bùwèi。

But a statistician named Wald argued the opposite: what needed reinforcing was the engine area, where the fewest bullet holes were found.

他tā的de理由lǐyóu令人lìng rén拍案叫绝pāi àn jiào jué：机翼jīyì中弹zhòngdàn还hái能néng飞fēi回来huílái，说明shuōmíng那里nàlǐ挨打áidǎ没关系méi guānxi；而ér发动机fādòngjī中弹zhòngdàn的de飞机fēijī，根本gēnběn没有méiyǒu机会jīhuì返航fǎnháng。

His reasoning was brilliant: a plane hit in the wings could still fly home, which meant those areas could take punishment; but a plane hit in the engine never got the chance to return at all.

这zhè就是jiùshì著名zhùmíng的de“幸存者xìngcúnzhě偏差piānchā”：我们wǒmen只zhǐ看得见kàn de jiàn幸存xìngcún下来xiàlái的de样本yàngběn，却què忽略hūlüè了le那些nàxiē沉默chénmò的de失败者shībàizhě。

This is the famous "survivorship bias": we see only the samples that survived, and overlook the silent failures.

生活shēnghuó中zhōng这种zhè zhǒng偏差piānchā无处不在wú chù bú zài：媒体méitǐ热衷于rèzhōng yú报道bàodào辍学chuòxué创业chuàngyè的de亿万富翁yìwàn fùwēng，却què很少hěn shǎo提及tíjí成千上万chéng qiān shàng wàn个ge失败shībài的de创业者chuàngyèzhě。

This bias is everywhere in daily life: the media love stories of dropout billionaires, yet rarely mention the tens of thousands of founders who failed.

于是yúshì有人yǒurén得出déchū“读书dúshū无用wúyòng”的de结论jiélùn，殊不知shūbùzhī这zhè恰恰qiàqià是shì被bèi幸存者xìngcúnzhě蒙蔽méngbì了le双眼shuāngyǎn。

Some then conclude that education is useless — little knowing that this is precisely a case of being blinded by the survivors.

下次xià cì听到tīngdào某个mǒu ge成功chénggōng故事gùshi时shí，不妨bùfáng先xiān问wèn一句yí jù：那些nàxiē没有méiyǒu成功chénggōng的de人rén，经历jīnglì了le什么shénme？

The next time you hear a success story, it is worth first asking: what happened to the people who did not succeed?

只有zhǐyǒu把bǎ沉默chénmò的de证据zhèngjù也yě纳入nàrù视野shìyě，我们wǒmen的de判断pànduàn才cái可能kěnéng接近jiējìn真相zhēnxiàng。

Only when the silent evidence is also brought into view can our judgments come close to the truth.

🔊 Audio uses your device's Chinese voice for now — teacher recordings are coming. Tap any word to see its meaning.

Key words 生词

幸存者xìngcúnzhěsurvivor

轰炸机hōngzhàjībomber (aircraft)

装甲zhuāngjiǎarmor

弹孔dànkǒngbullet hole

蒙蔽méngbìto blind; to deceive

纳入nàrùto bring into; to incorporate

Grammar note 语法点

…，以 + verb

In formal writing, 以 before a verb means 'in order to; so as to', linking an action to its purpose. 例：公司降低价格，以吸引更多顾客。

盟军想给轰炸机加装装甲，以减少损失。 — The Allies wanted to add armor to their bombers in order to reduce losses.

殊不知

A literary connector meaning 'little do they know; what they fail to realize is'. It introduces a truth that contradicts the belief just stated.

有人得出“读书无用”的结论，殊不知这恰恰是被幸存者蒙蔽了双眼。 — Some conclude that education is useless, little knowing that this is precisely a case of being blinded by the survivors.

只有…，才…

'Only if A, then B' — states a necessary condition. The clause after 才 cannot happen unless the 只有 condition is met.

只有把沉默的证据也纳入视野，我们的判断才可能接近真相。 — Only when the silent evidence is also brought into view can our judgments come close to the truth.

Check yourself 小测验

1. Where did Wald say the bombers should be reinforced?

2. Why did the surveyed planes show so few bullet holes around the engine?

3. What does the text say about media stories of dropout billionaires?

幸存者偏差Xìngcúnzhě piānchāSurvivorship Bias

Key words 生词

Grammar note 语法点

Check yourself 小测验

More HSK 6 reading practice